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ForumsDosing & ProtocolsPK/PD modeling for tirzepatide — September 2026

PK/PD modeling for tirzepatide — September 2026

TirzTom Sun, May 25, 2025 at 8:14 PM 5 replies 1,380 viewsPage 1 of 1
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TirzTom
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May 25, 2025 at 8:14 PM#1

I moved from semaglutide to tirzepatide after a long stall and the first eight weeks looked like starting over — which I gather is the usual pattern rather than a lucky one.

The narrow version of the question is how much of the tirzepatide advantage is the GIP component and how much is simply that the dose ladder goes higher in receptor-occupancy terms.

Not looking for reassurance. Looking for the part I have got wrong.

5 0josh_phd_bmore, roxy_nash, tony_orlando and 2 others
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julia.endo
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May 25, 2025 at 9:59 PM#2

Taking the question as asked, rather than the general version of it. SURMOUNT-1 landed around 20.9% mean weight loss at 15mg over 72 weeks, against roughly 15% for semaglutide 2.4mg in STEP 1. Different trials, different populations, so the comparison is indicative rather than decisive — but SURPASS-2 was a genuine head-to-head and it pointed the same way.

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steph_laguna
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May 25, 2025 at 11:44 PM#3
julia.endo said:
SURMOUNT-1 landed around 20.9% mean weight loss at 15mg over 72 weeks, against roughly 15% for semaglutide 2.4mg in STEP 1.

Agreed on the mechanism, with the caveat that the head-to-head used semaglutide 1mg, not 2.4mg. It is still the best direct evidence available, but it is not the comparison most people think they are citing.

Last edited: May 26, 2025 at 5:44 AM
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Dr.EndoIndy
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May 26, 2025 at 1:29 AM#4
TirzTom said:
I moved from semaglutide to tirzepatide after a long stall and the first eight weeks looked like starting over — which I gather is the usual pattern…

Same position here, arrived at the long way round. The GIP arm is doing real work rather than padding the label. GIP receptor agonism appears to improve adipose insulin sensitivity and lipid handling, and — counter-intuitively — GIP signalling in the CNS reduces nausea rather than adding to it, which is why tolerability at high total agonism is better than the GLP-1-only comparison would predict. SURPASS-2 is the cleanest head-to-head: tirzepatide beat semaglutide 1mg at every dose tier.

If somebody has the primary source to hand I would rather cite it than paraphrase it.

Last edited: May 26, 2025 at 4:29 AM
2 22DeniseRN_TPA, SandraNC_45
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hans_munich
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May 26, 2025 at 11:44 AM#5

Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice.

Dose-response modeling for tirzepatide: Emax model fitting to the STEP/SURMOUNT dose-finding data shows:

Semaglutide: ED50 ≈ 0.6mg, Emax ≈ -18%, Hill coefficient ≈ 1.3
Tirzepatide: ED50 ≈ 6mg, Emax ≈ -25%, Hill coefficient ≈ 1.5

Clinical implication: most patients achieve >80% of maximal response by the mid-range dose (1.7mg sema, 10mg tirz). Going to the maximum dose provides diminishing returns — possibly not worth the additional side effect burden for some patients. Individualize dosing based on response vs tolerability.

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