Dr.NateNeph said:

Distribution matters less than total but it is not nothing.

Thank you — that is the clearest version of this I have read, and I have read a lot of them. Adding it to my notes with a link back to this thread.

From the other side of the consultation, briefly. There is a difference between no evidence and evidence of no effect, and this subject is one where the two get swapped freely in both directions.

Happy to go further on any of that.

carl_compliance said:

The distinction that resolves most of these threads is between what is true on average and what is true for one person.

Pushing back on carl_compliance here. I think the framing smuggles in the conclusion. Ask it the other way round and the obvious answer reverses, which usually means the question is doing the work.

Adding the numbers, since they settle part of this. Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look. It is a small discipline and it changes what you notice.

Moderator note: reminder that nothing in this thread is medical advice, and that clinical claims need a source. Carry on.