AmyNC_wife said:

What actually changed my mind was the point about waiting for a trend instead of reading a single measurement, which is embarrassing in hindsight and…

I read this differently from AmyNC_wife, on substance rather than tone. Not convinced. The evidence being cited is consistent with the conclusion and also consistent with two other conclusions nobody has ruled out.

AmyNC_wife said:

What actually changed my mind was the point about waiting for a trend instead of reading a single measurement, which is embarrassing in hindsight and…

That is right, and it stops being right at the edges. The general case is well behaved; the interesting cases in this thread are all at the boundary where the general case breaks.

AmyNC_wife said:

What actually changed my mind was the point about waiting for a trend instead of reading a single measurement, which is embarrassing in hindsight and…

This is exactly what I could not find anywhere else. I will report back once I have actually tried it.

Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads. It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any. If nothing would, the discussion is not about evidence, and it is better to say so early than to spend nine posts discovering it.

Dr.SurgeonPGH said:

It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any.

Second this. I had assumed I was the exception until I read this.