The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine. Half the figures circulating in this community trace back to a secondary summary that dropped a qualifier.

One thing that is still open after MASHdoc_SA’s answer:

How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?

Worth restating a point from upthread for anyone joining at this page:

That holds where the measurement is reliable. Where it is noisy — and a lot of what gets tracked here is noisy — the same reasoning produces confident nonsense.

Moderator note: two posts asking for a source have been merged into one. Please search the thread before asking again.

FDA_TrackerJim said:

For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine.

Genuinely useful, thank you. I had the facts and not the framework.