From the other side of the consultation, briefly. Start from the measurement rather than the conclusion. Almost every disagreement here turns out to be two people measuring different things and comparing the numbers anyway.

PharmacoVig_BOS said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. Order of operations matters more than any single choice here: establish a baseline, change one thing, wait long enough for it to express itself, then measure again under the same conditions.

Adding the numbers, since they settle part of this. For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine. Half the figures circulating in this community trace back to a secondary summary that dropped a qualifier.

Happy to go further on any of that.

Following on from PharmacoVig_BOS — and this may be the naive question:

What would you measure differently if you were starting again?

Moderator note: two posts asking for a source have been merged into one. Please search the thread before asking again. No action needed from anybody.