TrialTracker_MD said:

It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any.

Coming at TrialTracker_MD’s question from a different direction. The distinction that resolves most of these threads is between what is true on average and what is true for one person. Both are real; they answer different questions and get quoted as if they were the same one.

Adding the numbers, since they settle part of this. Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath. An edited-away mistake is invisible to the next person who makes it.

Following on from TrialTracker_MD — and this may be the naive question:

How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?

raj_cambridge said:

Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath.

I am going to disagree with the direction of travel here. The thread has converged on the tidiest answer rather than the best-supported one, and those are not the same thing.

I would rather be corrected than agreed with, if it comes to it.

raj_cambridge said:

Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath.

Correct, and worth adding that it is reversible. Nothing being described here is a one-way door, which changes how cautious it is reasonable to be.