This is a fantastic dataset. The concordance across multiple inflammatory markers (CRP, IL-6, TNF-α, fibrinogen, ferritin) argues strongly against a spurious single-marker finding. This is genuine systemic inflammation resolution.
To your question about mediation: the CANTOS trial provides an important framework. Canakinumab (anti-IL-1β monoclonal antibody) reduced hsCRP by ~35% and MACE by 15% (HR 0.85 for the 150mg dose) without affecting lipids at all.[1] This proved that inflammation is a causal pathway in atherosclerosis, not just a marker.
In SELECT's mediation analyses, hsCRP reduction explained approximately 28% of the MACE benefit — more than weight loss, more than any single metabolic parameter. The remaining benefit likely comes from:
- Direct anti-atherosclerotic effects (reduced monocyte adhesion, improved endothelial function)
- Reduced visceral adiposity (the primary source of IL-6 and TNF-α)
- Improved hepatic steatosis (the liver is a major CRP producer)
[1] Ridker PM, Everett BM, Thuren T, et al. Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease (CANTOS). N Engl J Med. 2017;377(12):1119-1131.