TinaHashiRN said:

The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either.

Mine went the same way, slower.

dan_philly said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

Fair, and it stops being fair at the extremes. The middle of the range is well understood; the ends are where the honest answer is that nobody knows.

dan_philly said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

Thank you for spelling out the reasoning rather than just the conclusion. Printing the relevant bit and taking it with me.

Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads. Worth answering the question that was asked rather than the one behind it. The narrow version usually has an answer; the broad version usually does not, and answering the broad one is how a thread stops being useful.

Moderator note: good thread. Keeping it here rather than moving it, because the question is general enough to be useful. Carry on.