labquiet_amy said:

For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine.

Agreed, with the usual condition: that holds for the average and this board is a collection of individuals. A population claim and a personal prediction are different things and get quoted interchangeably.

labquiet_amy said:

For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine.

Thank you for spelling out the reasoning rather than just the conclusion. Taking it to my next appointment.

Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice. The version of this that has an answer is narrower than the version being asked. Narrow it and it becomes tractable; leave it broad and the thread will produce nine confident and incompatible replies.

Closing the loop on my own question.

Closing the loop. The answer turned out to depend on the detail I had left out of the opening post, which is a lesson about how to ask rather than about the subject.

Dr.EM_Chicago said:

The version of this that has an answer is narrower than the version being asked.

Adding the part of the answer the thread has not reached. It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any. If nothing would, the discussion is not about evidence, and it is better to say so early than to spend nine posts discovering it.