LabKate said:One habit that pays for itself: post the method alongside the number.
True, with the qualification that this is a self-selected group. The people for whom it did not work post less, and that shapes everything we think we know.
LabKate said:One habit that pays for itself: post the method alongside the number.
That reframing is the part I needed.
Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice. The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either. Those three things can all be true at once, and most arguments here are two people holding different parts of that.
If somebody has the primary source to hand I would rather cite it than paraphrase it.
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View Resultsjim_asheville said:The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either.
This is my experience too, for whatever a second data point is worth. Nothing to add that would improve it.
Closing the loop on my own question.
Update — my curve sits below the published mean and the explanation is that the trial arm had support I do not have. That was reassuring rather than otherwise.