The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. If you are comparing against somebody else’s result, check that you are comparing the same measurement taken the same way. Most of the apparent contradictions in these threads dissolve at that step.

Reporting back.

Update: the thing I was blaming turned out not to be the cause. Leaving the original post as written rather than editing it, so the mistake stays visible for whoever searches this next.

PedsEndoPhilly said:

Update: the thing I was blaming turned out not to be the cause.

I read this differently from PedsEndoPhilly, on substance rather than tone. This treats a plausible mechanism as a demonstrated one. Plausible is where you start looking, not where you stop.

PedsEndoPhilly said:

Update: the thing I was blaming turned out not to be the cause.

Correct as far as it goes. The part it does not cover is what to do when the honest answer is "not enough data", which is more often than anyone likes.

PedsEndoPhilly said:

Update: the thing I was blaming turned out not to be the cause.

This answered a question I did not know how to ask.