MikeFit_NJ said:

The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either.

I read this differently. The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is unsatisfying.

Adding the numbers, since they settle part of this. Give anything pharmacological four weeks before you judge it, and give anything measured weekly a four-point rolling average before you call it a trend.

Dr.SportsMedIN said:

The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is…

Adding the part of the answer the thread has not reached. The distinction that resolves most of these threads is between what is true on average and what is true for one person. Both are real; they answer different questions and get quoted as if they were the same one.

One thing that is still open after mike_nyc’s answer:

Was that from a primary source or from a summary of one?

OP back with an update, since a thread like this is useless without one.

For the archive: it took about six weeks rather than the two I expected, and the difference between those two numbers was the whole of my problem.