LipidDoc_ATL said:

The pattern that distinguishes a bad batch from an exit is behaviour rather than product.

This is where I part company with the consensus forming above. Import rules are jurisdiction-specific and this board keeps giving US-shaped answers to non-US questions. What is a personal-import allowance in one country is a controlled-import offence in another.

One concrete data point for the thread. Red flags, in rough order of how much they should worry you: no verifiable address, no batch numbers, prices far under market, vendor-commissioned tests only, pressure toward irreversible payment, and shipping with no temperature control.

Correct me if the detail matters more than I have assumed.

BenResearch_OR said:

Import rules are jurisdiction-specific and this board keeps giving US-shaped answers to non-US questions.

There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. The useful checklist is about verifiability rather than presentation. Independent test results commissioned by buyers rather than by the seller, consistency across multiple batches over time rather than one flattering report, a physical address and a company registration that resolve, batch and lot numbers on the actual labelling, and a shipping practice that matches what the material needs. Everything a good-looking website provides is cheap to fake; none of the items above are.

Following on from steve_okc — and this may be the naive question:

How people are distinguishing a supplier having a bad batch from a supplier on the way out?

Reporting back.

Went back through my own correspondence with an earlier supplier and the warning signs were all there in the replies, weeks before the quality changed. I was reading the product and not the behaviour.