Dr.CardioMD said:

It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any.

Agreed, with the usual condition: that holds for the average and this board is a collection of individuals. A population claim and a personal prediction are different things and get quoted interchangeably.

mike_mealprep said:

Whether it is right for the case being asked about depends on a detail that has not been given.

Bookmarking. The distinction being drawn above is the one nobody else makes. Taking it to my next appointment.

Dr.CardioMD said:

It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any.

Careful with the causal language. Two things moving together in a period when five things changed is not a mechanism, and stating it as one makes the thread less useful to somebody reading it later.

Adding the numbers, since they settle part of this. Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath. An edited-away mistake is invisible to the next person who makes it.

Moderator note: good thread. Keeping it here rather than moving it, because the question is general enough to be useful. Tagging this one for the weekly digest.