Dr.DermMIA said:

Start from the measurement rather than the conclusion.

Correct, and worth adding that it is reversible. Nothing being described here is a one-way door, which changes how cautious it is reasonable to be.

traveltech_sara said:

That holds where the measurement is reliable.

Thank you for spelling out the reasoning rather than just the conclusion.

Dr.DermMIA said:

Start from the measurement rather than the conclusion.

I read this differently from Dr.DermMIA, on substance rather than tone. I think the framing smuggles in the conclusion. Ask it the other way round and the obvious answer reverses, which usually means the question is doing the work.

The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. Practical: whatever you change, write down the date and the reason. In three months the reason is what you will have forgotten, and the reason is what makes the record worth having.

Moderator note: leaving this open. It is being argued well and the disagreement is the useful part. No action needed from anybody.