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ForumsSemaglutide (Ozempic / Wegovy)Semaglutide cardiovascular benefit: SELECT trial deep dive

Semaglutide cardiovascular benefit: SELECT trial deep dive

Dr.CardioMD Sun, May 31, 2026 at 8:37 PM 21 replies 414 viewsPage 1 of 5
Dr.CardioMD
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May 31, 2026 at 8:37 PM#1

Putting this up for argument rather than for agreement. I have read it twice and I am still not certain what it supports.

SELECT is the trial that changed the framing of this class, because it was an outcome trial rather than a weight trial: about a 20% relative reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events in people with established cardiovascular disease and overweight or obesity, without diabetes. The effect appeared earlier than the weight-loss curve can comfortably explain, which is the basis for arguing that some of the benefit is direct — anti-inflammatory and vascular — rather than purely a consequence of weight.

Where I think it is weakest: the completion rate deserves as much attention as the headline, because a large effect among those who finished is a different claim from a large effect among those enrolled.

What I am after is how much of the SELECT benefit is plausibly independent of the weight loss, and whether that distinction changes anything practical. I have searched first, so if this is covered somewhere point me at it and I will read it.

Note on sourcing:
Figures above are from the primary publication rather than the press summary. If a number here disagrees with one you have, post yours and we will work out which of us is reading a secondary source.
27 22kim_atl_prep, sarah_TO, wendy_avl and 24 others
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labquiet_amy
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May 31, 2026 at 8:38 PM#2
Dr.CardioMD said:
SELECT is the trial that changed the framing of this class, because it was an outcome trial rather than a weight trial: about a 20% relative reduction…

All true, with one condition: that curve is for people who reached the dose on schedule. Anyone who slowed the ladder for tolerability is on a different, flatter curve, and comparing yourself with the published mean will make you feel like a non-responder when you are not.

26 21HPLC_Greg, LibrarianMeg, bri_stats and 23 others
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MikeFit_NJ
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May 31, 2026 at 8:40 PM#3
Dr.CardioMD said:
SELECT is the trial that changed the framing of this class, because it was an outcome trial rather than a weight trial: about a 20% relative reduction…

This is where I part company with the consensus forming above. The "earlier than weight loss explains" argument is weaker than this thread makes it sound. Blood pressure and inflammatory markers move fast and are downstream of early weight loss, so the mechanism is not as cleanly separable as the summaries imply.

Last edited: May 31, 2026 at 11:40 PM
25 20DeniseRN_TPA, SandraNC_45, Dr.EndoIndy and 22 others
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Dr.EndoIndy
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May 31, 2026 at 8:41 PM#4

This one has a reasonably settled answer, so here it is. The mechanism that matters here is not stomach emptying, it is central. GLP-1 receptor agonism in the arcuate nucleus stimulates POMC neurons and suppresses AgRP/NPY signalling, which is why the effect is appetite and food salience rather than physical fullness. Delayed gastric emptying largely tachyphylaxes over the first months; the appetite effect does not.

24 19DeniseRN_TPA, SandraNC_45, Dr.EndoIndy and 21 others
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SaraMom3
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May 31, 2026 at 8:49 PM#5
labquiet_amy said:
All true, with one condition: that curve is for people who reached the dose on schedule.

That holds for the injectable. The oral formulation has different absorption behaviour and the dose numbers are not interchangeable, which is worth saying out loud because people quote them as if they were.

Last edited: Jun 1, 2026 at 12:49 AM
23 18ZaraB_AL, JakeSmashed95, NauseaFreeNow and 20 others
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