CarlaRPh_TPA said:

It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false.

There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. Whatever the answer turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, and invite the correction. That is slower than asserting, and it is the only version that survives being wrong.

Ask again with the specifics and you will get a better answer than this one.

One concrete data point for the thread. Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath. An edited-away mistake is invisible to the next person who makes it.

Moderator note: good thread. Keeping it here rather than moving it, because the question is general enough to be useful.

stefan_berlin said:

Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath.

Pushing back on stefan_berlin here. Not convinced. The evidence being cited is consistent with the conclusion and also consistent with two other conclusions nobody has ruled out.

stefan_berlin said:

Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath.

That is right for the common case. Whether it is right for the case being asked about depends on a detail that has not been given.