Dr.NateNeph said:It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any.
This matches mine closely enough to be worth saying so out loud. Posting only so the count is not one.
Dr.NateNeph said:It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any.
There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. Start from the measurement rather than the conclusion. Almost every disagreement here turns out to be two people measuring different things and comparing the numbers anyway.
The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. Give anything pharmacological four weeks before you judge it, and give anything measured weekly a four-point rolling average before you call it a trend.
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Shop Reference StandardsA narrower follow-up, since the general answer is now clear:
Was that from a primary source or from a summary of one?
Closing the loop on my own question.
Late follow-up. I did not do what was suggested, I did something adjacent, and it worked; posting the difference in case it matters to somebody.