This is the version of the explanation I wish somebody had given me, written down before I forget what confused me. It is about semaglutide, and it is deliberately narrow — everything I am not confident about is marked as such.
What is actually established
The dose-response is real but shallow at the top. Across STEP 1 and STEP 4 the gap between 1.7mg and 2.4mg is a couple of percentage points of body weight on average, and the average is carrying a wide spread — plenty of people at 1.7mg sit above the 2.4mg mean. If a dose is working and tolerable, "working" is the relevant variable, not "maximal".
The condition it depends on
One condition: that curve is for people who reached the dose on schedule. Anyone who slowed the ladder for tolerability is on a different, flatter curve, and comparing yourself with the published mean will make you feel like a non-responder when you are not.
The practical version
For anyone assembling their own picture: Tmax is one to three days, terminal half-life about 165 to 170 hours, steady state at four to five weeks, and subcutaneous bioavailability near 89%. Those four numbers explain most of the questions people ask about timing.
What I am not sure about
What I am after is how much of the between-person variation is pharmacokinetic and how much is just adherence measured badly. Not looking for reassurance. Looking for the part I have got wrong.
— chris_chi24 · corrections welcome and will be edited into this post with credit