lisa_labSD said:If two explanations both fit, the useful question is which one predicts something the other does not.
That is right, and it stops being right at the edges. The general case is well behaved; the interesting cases in this thread are all at the boundary where the general case breaks.
laura_annarbor said:Pancreatitis scare with pancreatitis risk: had severe upper abdominal pain radiating to my back at week 11.
That reframing is the part I needed.
lisa_labSD said:If two explanations both fit, the useful question is which one predicts something the other does not.
I read this differently. The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is unsatisfying.
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View ResultsOne concrete data point for the thread. One habit that pays for itself: post the method alongside the number. A figure without its method cannot be checked, and an unchecked figure is how this community accumulates folklore.