Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads. It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false. If nothing would look different, it is not a claim about the world and no amount of discussion will settle it.

PharmacoVig_BOS said:

It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false.

I read this differently. The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is unsatisfying.

I would rather be corrected than agreed with, if it comes to it.

PharmacoVig_BOS said:

It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false.

That is right, and it stops being right at the edges. The general case is well behaved; the interesting cases in this thread are all at the boundary where the general case breaks.

PharmacoVig_BOS said:

It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false.

This answered a question I did not know how to ask.

Moderator note: two posts asking for a source have been merged into one. Please search the thread before asking again. No action needed from anybody.