DoseLogDan said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

Filing a mild objection. Mild because I might be wrong; an objection because nobody has addressed the case that does not fit. Filing an objection on the n=1 problem. Personal experience is genuine evidence about one person and very weak evidence about anybody else, and this thread keeps promoting the first into the second.

DoseLogDan said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

Agreeing with DoseLogDan, and the qualification matters more than the agreement. Yes, and the corollary is less popular: if the reasoning holds, it also holds where it produces an answer we do not like.

DoseLogDan said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

Genuinely useful, thank you. I had the facts and not the framework. Printing the relevant bit and taking it with me.

Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads. It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any. If nothing would, the discussion is not about evidence, and it is better to say so early than to spend nine posts discovering it.

Happy to go further on any of that.

OP back with an update, since a thread like this is useless without one.

Reporting back with a partial result, because a partial result is still better than silence. Two of the three things suggested helped; I cannot separate them and I am not going to pretend otherwise.