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ForumsDosing & ProtocolsPK/PD modeling for tirzepatide — anyone have experience?

PK/PD modeling for tirzepatide — anyone have experience?

CryptoCarl Sat, Jan 10, 2026 at 5:27 AM 24 replies 1,368 viewsPage 1 of 5
CryptoCarl
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Jan 10, 2026 at 5:27 AM#1

Fourteen months on tirzepatide, currently 10mg, and I stopped escalating because 10mg is doing the job and 15mg made me feel flat rather than full.

What I am trying to establish is how much of the tirzepatide advantage is the GIP component and how much is simply that the dose ladder goes higher in receptor-occupancy terms.

Not looking for reassurance. Looking for the part I have got wrong.

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PharmD_Rodriguez
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Jan 10, 2026 at 5:56 AM#2

This one has a reasonably settled answer, so here it is. SURMOUNT-1 landed around 20.9% mean weight loss at 15mg over 72 weeks, against roughly 15% for semaglutide 2.4mg in STEP 1. Different trials, different populations, so the comparison is indicative rather than decisive — but SURPASS-2 was a genuine head-to-head and it pointed the same way.

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KristenIndy
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Jan 10, 2026 at 6:25 AM#3
PharmD_Rodriguez said:
SURMOUNT-1 landed around 20.9% mean weight loss at 15mg over 72 weeks, against roughly 15% for semaglutide 2.4mg in STEP 1.

Agreed on the mechanism, with the caveat that the head-to-head used semaglutide 1mg, not 2.4mg. It is still the best direct evidence available, but it is not the comparison most people think they are citing.

I would rather be corrected than agreed with, if it comes to it.

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pam_stl
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Jan 10, 2026 at 6:54 AM#4
CryptoCarl said:
Fourteen months on tirzepatide, currently 10mg, and I stopped escalating because 10mg is doing the job and 15mg made me feel flat rather than full.

This matches mine closely enough to be worth saying so. The GIP arm is doing real work rather than padding the label. GIP receptor agonism appears to improve adipose insulin sensitivity and lipid handling, and — counter-intuitively — GIP signalling in the CNS reduces nausea rather than adding to it, which is why tolerability at high total agonism is better than the GLP-1-only comparison would predict. SURPASS-2 is the cleanest head-to-head: tirzepatide beat semaglutide 1mg at every dose tier.

If somebody has the primary source to hand I would rather cite it than paraphrase it.

Last edited: Jan 10, 2026 at 11:54 AM
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sean_dublin
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Jan 10, 2026 at 9:32 AM#5

Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice.

Dose-response modeling for tirzepatide: Emax model fitting to the STEP/SURMOUNT dose-finding data shows:

Semaglutide: ED50 ≈ 0.6mg, Emax ≈ -18%, Hill coefficient ≈ 1.3
Tirzepatide: ED50 ≈ 6mg, Emax ≈ -25%, Hill coefficient ≈ 1.5

Clinical implication: most patients achieve >80% of maximal response by the mid-range dose (1.7mg sema, 10mg tirz). Going to the maximum dose provides diminishing returns — possibly not worth the additional side effect burden for some patients. Individualize dosing based on response vs tolerability.

26 21quinn_sf, NurseLeah_Nash, gary_naperville and 23 others
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