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ForumsMetabolic Health & DiabetesSURPASS-CVOT: tirzepatide cardiovascular outcomes trial design — need advice

SURPASS-CVOT: tirzepatide cardiovascular outcomes trial design — need advice

GenomicsKate Sat, Jan 3, 2026 at 11:59 AM 29 replies 1,587 viewsPage 1 of 6
GenomicsKate
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Jan 3, 2026 at 11:59 AM#1

Posting this because the summary going around does not say what the paper says, and the difference matters for how people here are using it.

The GIP arm is doing real work rather than padding the label. GIP receptor agonism appears to improve adipose insulin sensitivity and lipid handling, and — counter-intuitively — GIP signalling in the CNS reduces nausea rather than adding to it, which is why tolerability at high total agonism is better than the GLP-1-only comparison would predict. SURPASS-2 is the cleanest head-to-head: tirzepatide beat semaglutide 1mg at every dose tier.

Where I think it is weakest: the population was selected and supported in ways a real cohort is not, so I would read the effect size as a ceiling rather than an expectation.

What I am after is how much of the tirzepatide advantage is the GIP component and how much is simply that the dose ladder goes higher in receptor-occupancy terms. I have searched first, so if this is covered somewhere point me at it and I will read it.

Note on sourcing:
Figures above are from the primary publication rather than the press summary. If a number here disagrees with one you have, post yours and we will work out which of us is reading a secondary source.
44 14DebRD_ATL, KristenIndy, MarkLI_maint and 41 others
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amsterdam_pete
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Jan 3, 2026 at 12:46 PM#2
GenomicsKate said:
The GIP arm is doing real work rather than padding the label.

GenomicsKate has the substance of this right. The condition it depends on is worth stating. Steady state is faster than people expect: half-life about five days, so you are at plateau in roughly three to four weeks rather than five. That matters when you are deciding whether a dose step has finished expressing itself.

43 13ZaraB_AL, JakeSmashed95, NauseaFreeNow and 40 others
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Dr.RaviCardio
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Jan 3, 2026 at 1:33 PM#3
GenomicsKate said:
The GIP arm is doing real work rather than padding the label.

I read this differently from GenomicsKate, on substance rather than tone. The "tirzepatide is simply better" summary irritates me. It is better on mean weight loss, and the cardiovascular outcome evidence is far thinner than semaglutide's. If the reason for treating is cardiovascular risk rather than weight, the evidence base points the other way.

42 12mark_tokyo, hans_munich, jason_sac26 and 39 others
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TinaHashiRN
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Jan 3, 2026 at 2:20 PM#4

This one has a reasonably settled answer, so here it is. SURMOUNT-1 landed around 20.9% mean weight loss at 15mg over 72 weeks, against roughly 15% for semaglutide 2.4mg in STEP 1. Different trials, different populations, so the comparison is indicative rather than decisive — but SURPASS-2 was a genuine head-to-head and it pointed the same way.

41 11Admin, Dr.Martinez, mike_mod and 38 others
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bri_stats
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Jan 3, 2026 at 6:46 PM#5
amsterdam_pete said:
Steady state is faster than people expect: half-life about five days, so you are at plateau in roughly three to four weeks rather than five.

Agreed, with the qualification that SELECT enrolled a secondary-prevention population. Extrapolating a 20% relative reduction to a healthy 35-year-old with a BMI of 31 is not what that trial showed.

40 10julia.endo, JessicaM_2024, TomFromTexas and 37 others
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