The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine. Half the figures circulating in this community trace back to a secondary summary that dropped a qualifier.

If somebody has the primary source to hand I would rather cite it than paraphrase it.

One thing that is still open after newstart_MO’s answer:

How long did you give it before you decided it was working?

BiostatsBrad said:

For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine.

I read this differently from BiostatsBrad, on substance rather than tone. Not convinced. The evidence being cited is consistent with the conclusion and also consistent with two other conclusions nobody has ruled out.

BiostatsBrad said:

For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine.

Agreed on the substance. I would put less weight on the timescale, because two months of anything is not enough to distinguish a trend from a wobble.

Closing the loop on my own question.

Resolved, and the thing that resolved it was the least interesting suggestion in the thread. Writing that down for the next person who wants the interesting answer.