This is the version of the explanation I wish somebody had given me, written down before I forget what confused me. It is about a stall, and it is deliberately narrow — everything I am not confident about is marked as such.
What is actually established
Genuine plateaus happen too, and the mechanism is metabolic adaptation plus a smaller body. A body 20kg lighter needs meaningfully fewer calories at rest and less to move, so the deficit that produced the first phase is arithmetically smaller now. The options are the honest ones — increase the deficit slightly, increase activity, or accept the new plateau — and escalating the dose is only one of them.
The condition it depends on
The early-responder data is relevant to expectations: roughly 3% loss by week four at a therapeutic dose predicts a strong result at a year. It does not mean someone below that will not respond, but it changes how long you should wait before changing something.
What I am not sure about
The bit I cannot resolve on my own is how to distinguish a genuine plateau from measurement noise and creeping intake, before changing anything. I would rather have one careful answer than five confident ones.
— Dr.ObesityMed · corrections welcome and will be edited into this post with credit