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ForumsCardiovascular OutcomesSOUL trial preliminary data — semaglutide in T2DM cardiovascular outcomes

SOUL trial preliminary data — semaglutide in T2DM cardiovascular outcomes

Dr.CardioMD Tue, Jun 2, 2026 at 1:06 AM 20 replies 546 viewsPage 1 of 4
Dr.CardioMD
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Jun 2, 2026 at 1:06 AM#1

This gets cited here weekly, usually second-hand, so it is worth setting out what it does and does not establish.

SELECT is the trial that changed the framing of this class, because it was an outcome trial rather than a weight trial: about a 20% relative reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events in people with established cardiovascular disease and overweight or obesity, without diabetes. The effect appeared earlier than the weight-loss curve can comfortably explain, which is the basis for arguing that some of the benefit is direct — anti-inflammatory and vascular — rather than purely a consequence of weight.

Where I think it is weakest: the completion rate deserves as much attention as the headline, because a large effect among those who finished is a different claim from a large effect among those enrolled.

The bit I cannot resolve on my own is how much of the SELECT benefit is plausibly independent of the weight loss, and whether that distinction changes anything practical. Tell me what I have not thought of.

Note on sourcing:
Figures above are from the primary publication rather than the press summary. If a number here disagrees with one you have, post yours and we will work out which of us is reading a secondary source.
1 21kim_atl_prep
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DanielChem_CHI
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Jun 2, 2026 at 1:11 AM#2
Dr.CardioMD said:
SELECT is the trial that changed the framing of this class, because it was an outcome trial rather than a weight trial: about a 20% relative reduction…

That holds for the injectable. The oral formulation has different absorption behaviour and the dose numbers are not interchangeable, which is worth saying out loud because people quote them as if they were.

That is the short version; the long version is somebody else's post.

50 20Dr.DermMIA, fiona_VT, denise_HTX and 47 others
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JennaRN
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Jun 2, 2026 at 1:15 AM#3
Dr.CardioMD said:
SELECT is the trial that changed the framing of this class, because it was an outcome trial rather than a weight trial: about a 20% relative reduction…

Pushing back on Dr.CardioMD here. The "earlier than weight loss explains" argument is weaker than this thread makes it sound. Blood pressure and inflammatory markers move fast and are downstream of early weight loss, so the mechanism is not as cleanly separable as the summaries imply.

Last edited: Jun 2, 2026 at 2:15 AM
49 19BiostatsBrad, PeptideSynthNJ, Dr.KarenChen and 46 others
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VendorMark
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Jun 2, 2026 at 1:20 AM#4

Taking the question as asked, rather than the general version of it. Steady state is the thing most people miss. The terminal half-life is about a week, so every dose step takes four to five weeks to fully express itself. Judging a step at day ten is judging the ascent, not the plateau, and it is the single commonest reason people escalate before they needed to.

Ask again with the specifics and you will get a better answer than this one.

48 18Dr.PeteFamMed, claudia_zurich, nancy_portland and 45 others
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Dr.PulmRoch
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Jun 2, 2026 at 1:43 AM#5
DanielChem_CHI said:
The oral formulation has different absorption behaviour and the dose numbers are not interchangeable, which is worth saying out loud because people…

Agreed, though "tolerable" needs defining. A dose you tolerate by eating almost nothing is not tolerated, it is being paid for somewhere else — usually in lean mass, sometimes in adherence three months later.

Last edited: Jun 2, 2026 at 2:43 AM
47 17KristenIndy, MarkLI_maint, Dr.PeteFamMed and 44 others
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