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ForumsPublic SquareWeekly check-in thread — need advice

Weekly check-in thread — need advice

greg_boulder Fri, Apr 5, 2024 at 2:30 AM 52 replies 2,715 viewsPage 1 of 11
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greg_boulder
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Jul 2024
Boulder, CO
Apr 5, 2024 at 2:30 AM#1

I keep finding that the number in the press summary and the number in the paper are not the same number, and the difference is always in the same direction.

The question I want answered is how to read a result like this without either dismissing it or over-reading it, since the summaries all read like press releases.

Numbers rather than impressions, if you have them.

11 14denise_HTX, raj_cambridge, ingrid_STO and 8 others
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LabKate
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Jan 2024
Oregon
Apr 5, 2024 at 2:41 AM#2

Taking the question as asked, rather than the general version of it. The gap between trial results and real-world results is consistent and it is not fraud. Trial participants get titration by protocol, scheduled contact, free drug and dietetic support; removing that infrastructure costs a few percentage points every time it has been measured. When your own curve sits below the published mean, that is the likeliest explanation before anything about you or your material.

12 15laura_annarbor, JenMemphis, pat_auckland and 9 others
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nick_SD_fit
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Sep 2024
San Diego, CA
Apr 5, 2024 at 2:52 AM#3
LabKate said:
The gap between trial results and real-world results is consistent and it is not fraud.

Propensity score matching studies and the trial evidence: when RCTs aren't available for a specific question, propensity score-matched observational studies can provide useful evidence.

A recent PSM study of 18,000 GLP-1 users vs matched controls showed reduced stroke risk (HR 0.82) over 4 years of follow-up[1].

These results complement the RCT data and suggest the benefits translate to real-world populations.

References:
[1] Registry-based cohort study, pre-print 2024.
13 16EndoResFellow, PharmacoVig_BOS, SurmountFan_IN and 10 others
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PeptideSynthNJ
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Aug 2024
Princeton, NJ
Apr 5, 2024 at 3:03 AM#4
greg_boulder said:
I keep finding that the number in the press summary and the number in the paper are not the same number, and the difference is always in the same…

Can confirm the pattern greg_boulder describes. Read four things before the headline number. The population, because trial populations are selected and supported in ways that real cohorts are not. The comparator, because "better than placebo" and "better than the current standard" are different claims and get reported identically. The primary endpoint as pre-registered, because a secondary endpoint promoted after the fact is a hypothesis rather than a finding. And the completion rate, because a large effect in the half of participants who finished is a different result from a large effect in everybody enrolled.

Ask again with the specifics and you will get a better answer than this one.

14 17MikeKY_noInsulin, Dr.RaviCardio, jennifer_SEA and 11 others
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chris_chi24
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Sep 2024
Chicago, IL
Apr 5, 2024 at 4:03 AM#5

From the other side of the consultation, briefly.

Forest plot interpretation for the the trial evidence meta-analysis: when reading the pooled estimate, pay attention to:

  1. Point estimate (HR/RR/OR) — center of the diamond
  2. Confidence interval width — precision of the estimate
  3. I² statistic — heterogeneity across studies
  4. Individual study weights — are results driven by one large trial?
  5. Prediction interval — range of plausible true effects in future settings

The the trial evidence meta-analysis shows a pooled RR of 0.85 (95% CI 0.70-0.85), I²=43%. This is a robust and consistent effect.

Last edited: Apr 5, 2024 at 7:03 AM
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