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ForumsCardiovascular OutcomesTirzepatide cardiovascular safety — looking for input

Tirzepatide cardiovascular safety — looking for input

nancy_portland Mon, Jan 20, 2025 at 3:19 PM 36 replies 2,184 viewsPage 1 of 8
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nancy_portland
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Jan 20, 2025 at 3:19 PM#1

Posting this because the summary going around does not say what the paper says, and the difference matters for how people here are using it.

SELECT is the trial that changed the framing of this class, because it was an outcome trial rather than a weight trial: about a 20% relative reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events in people with established cardiovascular disease and overweight or obesity, without diabetes. The effect appeared earlier than the weight-loss curve can comfortably explain, which is the basis for arguing that some of the benefit is direct — anti-inflammatory and vascular — rather than purely a consequence of weight.

Where I think it is weakest: the population was selected and supported in ways a real cohort is not, so I would read the effect size as a ceiling rather than an expectation.

The narrow version of the question is how much of the SELECT benefit is plausibly independent of the weight loss, and whether that distinction changes anything practical. I would rather have one careful answer than five confident ones.

Note on sourcing:
Figures above are from the primary publication rather than the press summary. If a number here disagrees with one you have, post yours and we will work out which of us is reading a secondary source.
16 19DebRD_ATL, KristenIndy, MarkLI_maint and 13 others
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Dr.CardioMD
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Jan 20, 2025 at 5:30 PM#2
nancy_portland said:
SELECT is the trial that changed the framing of this class, because it was an outcome trial rather than a weight trial: about a 20% relative reduction…

True, though the ladder is longer and that is not a neutral detail — six dose steps means six opportunities to stall on the way up, and plenty of people never reach the dose the headline number came from.

17 20Dr.NephBHM_UK, kim_atl_prep, sarah_TO and 14 others
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RetaRick_CA
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Jan 20, 2025 at 7:41 PM#3
nancy_portland said:
SELECT is the trial that changed the framing of this class, because it was an outcome trial rather than a weight trial: about a 20% relative reduction…

I read this differently from nancy_portland, on substance rather than tone. The "earlier than weight loss explains" argument is weaker than this thread makes it sound. Blood pressure and inflammatory markers move fast and are downstream of early weight loss, so the mechanism is not as cleanly separable as the summaries imply.

Last edited: Jan 20, 2025 at 8:41 PM
18 21DadBodDave, AmyNC_wife, SkepticalSean and 15 others
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lisa_labSD
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Jan 20, 2025 at 9:52 PM#4

Answering the narrow version, because the broad one does not have a single answer. Steady state is faster than people expect: half-life about five days, so you are at plateau in roughly three to four weeks rather than five. That matters when you are deciding whether a dose step has finished expressing itself.

19 22lori_vegas, Dr.PulmRoch, maya_sedona and 16 others
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Dr.LeslieOBGYN
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Jan 21, 2025 at 10:53 AM#5
Dr.CardioMD said:
True, though the ladder is longer and that is not a neutral detail — six dose steps means six opportunities to stall on the way up, and plenty of…

Mine went the same way, slower. Posting only so the count is not one.

Last edited: Jan 21, 2025 at 4:53 PM
20 23mike_mealprep, NicoleRaleigh, james_edin and 17 others
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