Answering the narrow version, because the broad one does not have a single answer. The phase 2 numbers were about 24% mean weight loss at 48 weeks on the top dose, with the curve still descending at the end of the study. A curve that has not flattened is a real finding, but it also means the true plateau is unknown, and phase 2 populations are small and selected.
Prescribed on cardiovascular grounds rather than for weight, and almost everything written for patients assumes the opposite.
Relative versus absolute is the distinction that gets lost: a 20% relative reduction on a high baseline risk is a large absolute benefit, and the same relative figure on a low baseline risk is a small one.
What would genuinely help is knowing how much of the SELECT benefit is plausibly independent of the weight loss, and whether that distinction changes anything practical.
Practical detail welcome, however dull — the duller the better.
TrialTracker_MD said:The phase 2 numbers were about 24% mean weight loss at 48 weeks on the top dose, with the curve still descending at the end of the study.
Fair, but phase 2 tolerability figures rarely survive contact with phase 3 scale. Triple agonism means three receptor systems generating adverse events, and the dropout column is the one I would read first when the larger trials report.
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Browse GL BiochemDr.RenalNash said:Prescribed on cardiovascular grounds rather than for weight, and almost everything written for patients assumes the opposite.
Same pattern here, and in the same order. The detail I would add is minor and it is already implied above.
Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads.
SUSTAIN-6 was the first CVOT to show cardiovascular benefit with semaglutide, relevant to cardiovascular risk. In 3,297 T2DM patients with high CV risk: MACE HR 0.74 (95% CI 0.58-0.95, p=0.02)[1].
Notable: the retinopathy signal in SUSTAIN-6 (HR 1.76) was subsequently attributed to rapid A1C reduction in patients with pre-existing retinopathy — not a direct drug effect. This has been confirmed in longer-term follow-up studies.
[1] Marso SP, et al. N Engl J Med. 2016;375(19):1834-1844.