SleepDoc_PDX said:

Whatever the answer turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, and invite the…

This matches mine closely enough to be worth saying so out loud.

SleepDoc_PDX said:

Whatever the answer turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, and invite the…

There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. Worth answering the question that was asked rather than the one behind it. The narrow version usually has an answer; the broad version usually does not, and answering the broad one is how a thread stops being useful.

Moderator note: a post naming a supplier has been edited. Discuss suppliers in the review sections, not here. Carry on.

A narrower follow-up, since the general answer is now clear:

How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?

MarkLI_maint said:

Worth answering the question that was asked rather than the one behind it.

I read this differently. The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is unsatisfying.