pat_auckland said:

Whatever the answer turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, and invite the…

Agreed, with the usual condition: that holds for the average and this board is a collection of individuals. A population claim and a personal prediction are different things and get quoted interchangeably.

Dr.AddMedPHL said:

Agreed on adaptation, with a caveat: adaptation applies to gastric emptying and not to everything.

This is exactly what I could not find anywhere else. I will report back once I have actually tried it.

pat_auckland said:

Whatever the answer turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, and invite the…

Pushing back on pat_auckland here. The counter-case has not been addressed. Somebody upthread described the situation that does not fit, and the thread moved on rather than engaging with it, which is the failure mode this board is supposed to avoid.

The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine. Half the figures circulating in this community trace back to a secondary summary that dropped a qualifier.

Moderator note: the sourcing question belongs in the vendor section and has been split out. Report rather than reply if it drifts again.