Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice. The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either. Those three things can all be true at once, and most arguments here are two people holding different parts of that.

wendy_avl said:

Give anything pharmacological four weeks before you judge it, and give anything measured weekly a four-point rolling average before you call it a…

Thank you for spelling out the reasoning rather than just the conclusion. Taking it to my next appointment.

Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads. It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false. If nothing would look different, it is not a claim about the world and no amount of discussion will settle it.

Dr.NateNeph said:

It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false.

Adding a me-too, because a thread of one person's experience is not much use.

Moderator note: leaving this open. It is being argued well and the disagreement is the useful part. No action needed from anybody.