One thing that is still open after Dr.CardioMD’s answer:

What would you measure differently if you were starting again?

HPLC_Greg said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

I read this differently from HPLC_Greg, on substance rather than tone. Not convinced. The evidence being cited is consistent with the conclusion and also consistent with two other conclusions nobody has ruled out.

Worth separating that from training through weight loss, which this thread keeps folding into the same question. They behave differently and the advice does not transfer.

HPLC_Greg said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

Agreed, and one caution: a single measurement is not a measurement. Anything that moves day to day needs a trend before it means anything at all.

HPLC_Greg said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

Thank you for spelling out the reasoning rather than just the conclusion. Taking it to my next appointment.

Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads. The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either. Those three things can all be true at once, and most arguments here are two people holding different parts of that.